mvgilliland

23 Articles

The “Avoidability” of Forecast Error

"Forecastability" is a frequent topic of discussion on The BFD, and an…

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One-Number Forecasting: A New Worst Practice?

The one-number forecasting concept has been debated for years.Advocates argue that having…

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Forecasting the Stock Market: Lessons Learned

There is a well recognized phenomenon that combining forecasts, derived from different…

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Forecasting Is Harder Than It Looks

Want to make weather forecasting look good? Want to make weather forecasting…

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Simple Methods and Ensemble Forecasting of Elections

Two enduring principles of forecasting are that simple methods can work as…

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The Predictive Power of Nonsense

The 2012 US Presidential race comes to a close today (thankfully), and…

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Guest Blogger: Len Tashman Previews Fall 2012 Issue of Foresight

Editor Len Tashman's Preview of ForesightThe importance of Editor Len Tashman's Preview…

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Could You Be POTUS?

Business forecasting is a dismal field of endeavor, fit for dismal people like…

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More on Forecasting Benchmarks

The Perils RevisitedA few posts ago I warned of the perils of…

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Forecasting Olympic Medals

The 2012 Summer Olympics in London are just around the corner, and…

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