I have been reminded in the past couple weeks working with customers that in many applications of data mining and predictive analytics, unless the stakeholders of predictive models understand what the models are doing, they are utterly useless. When rules from a decision tree, no matter how statistically significant, don't resonate with domain experts, they won't be believed. Arguments that "the model wouldn't have picked this rule if it wasn't really there in the data" makes no difference when the rule doesn't make sense.
There is always a tradeoff in these cases between the "best" model (i.e., most accurate by some measure) and the "best understood" model (i.e., the one that gets the "ahhhs" from the domain experts). We can coerce models toward the transparent rather than the statistically significant by removing fields that perform well but don't contribute to the story the models tell about the data.
I know what some of you are thinking: if the rule or pattern found by the model is that good, we must try to find the reason for its inclusion, make the case for it, find a surrogate meaning, or just demand it be included because it is so good! I trust the algorithms and our ability to assess if the algorithms are finding something "real" compared with those "happenstance" occurrences. But not all stakeholders share our trust, and it is our job to translate the message for them so that their confidence in the models approaches are own.
Predictive Models are Only as Good as Their Acceptance by Decision-Makers
Other Posts by Dean Abbott
Another Wisdom of Crowds Prediction Win at eMetrics / Predictive Analytics World - April 27, 2012
Why Defining the Target Variable in Predictive Analytics is Critical - April 7, 2012
Target, Pregnancy, and Predictive Analytics, Part II - February 22, 2012
Target, Pregnancy, and Predictive Analytics - Part I - February 19, 2012
Models Behaving Badly - December 29, 2011
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NissimMatatov said:
Usefulness of models is a well known research topic in academy . IT will take a several years to get in tools
DeanAbbott said:
Can you elaborate on what form of model usefulness will take years to get into tools?
DeanAbbott said:
Usefulness is an even more well-known topic in industry! :)
Nissim Matatov said:
Usefulness of models is a well known research topic in academy . IT will take a several years to get in tools
Nissim Matatov said:
This issue of usefulness of model's results is researched in academy for years . We would wait several years these methods (even simple one ) will enter the tools.
Gary Cokins said:
Dean (and James),
Good points from both of you. Getting "acceptance" is about getting buy-in. At the risk of banging the bell too much about change management, I think we are all underestimating the increasing importance that organizational and cultural and social issues play. I am a technical and methods guy, and change management is soft and subjective ... and none of us were trained in it!
Somewhere in remedying your concern there needs to be user training and leadership. I'm not sure if the weights are 90/10 or 10/90 or in between. But my sense is there is not enough of either of them.
Gary
Gary Cokins, SAS
DeanAbbott said:
Gary:
do you mean user training for the decision makers, or training for the analytics in how to explain what the predictive models do from a business perspective (to help get buy-in)? For the latter, this can be done to some degree, but we definitely need to identify the right people for this. Some technical folks I love, but would never put them in front of management--too blunt, and unable to explain concepts in readily understood language. Others can be trained to "translate the message", and in this context, I definitely agree training could be very helpful.
DeanAbbott said:
And that's the biggest problem with "statistical significance"--all it means is that the result isn't by chance, not that it is a useful or interesting result!
DeanAbbott said:
And that's the biggest problem with "statistical significance"--all it means is that the result isn't by chance, not that it is a useful or interesting result!
JamesTaylor said:
Or, I might add, their ability to usefully change the behavior of a system.
Fundamentally, of course, someone has to believe the model either so they can make a decision based on it or so they are willing to trust a decision that comes from a system that uses it.
As I once said to a room full of analysts - the only results that matter are business results. If your model does not improve business results (because it is too hard to implement, because decision makers don't trust it, because it is not actionable) then it is a BAD model no matter how statistically valid it might be.
JT
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